As winter has slipped into spring, so our promising Sierra snowpack has melted and slid down the mountains. Only 4.4 inches of snow water equivalent remains at the Tuolumne Meadows station, the fourth-lowest amount on record since 1930.
The model correlating the Tioga Road opening date with the amount of April 1st snow water equivalent at Tuolumne Meadows predicts that the road will open on May 7th, 2026. The 50% prediction interval is two-weeks wide, one week on either side of May 7: May 1-14.
Snowpack data is available from CDEC: https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=COURSES.202604
Historical opening dates of the Tioga Road are available from Yosemite: https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/seasonal.htm.
Thanks to the Park for adding in older opening dates! I’ve matched them up with Apr 1 snow data and added them as more grey dots to this year’s graph. As in previous predictions, the grey dots on the graph are not used in the model: Significantly different Park management policies were in effect those years.
Enjoy the early spring and what looks to be a long summer!